As prediction markets gain increasing momentum in the financial and technological spheres, Coinbase steps into the scene with a clear ambition: to compete with Polymarket, the current leader. This new platform, developed in partnership with Kalshi, aims to democratize access to these markets by offering its 100 million users the opportunity to bet on a multitude of events, ranging from politics to sports, as well as economics and culture. With a fully regulated infrastructure integrated into a robust crypto ecosystem, Coinbase is set to transform the way individuals approach prediction and investment.
Faced with growing demand for innovative tools to anticipate developments in various sectors, this initiative fits into a key trend: the marriage between decentralized finance, cryptocurrencies, and the gamification of real-world events. This strategy is not limited to offering a new gambling platform; it aims to create an integrated financial super-app where each user can diversify their activities, from price speculation to predicting global trends, all within a secure legal framework.
- 1 Prediction markets: a new horizon for finance and cryptocurrency
- 2 Coinbase and Kalshi: strategic partnership for a regulated and innovative platform
- 3 Coinbase challenges Polymarket: increased competition in the prediction markets universe
- 4 A diversified universe of events to bet on with expertise
- 5 Coinbase user interface: simplicity and education to attract new entrants
- 6 Regulatory and ethical challenges surrounding prediction markets
- 7 Outlook: towards a universal financial super-app
Prediction markets: a new horizon for finance and cryptocurrency
For several years, prediction markets have emerged as a unique category at the crossroads of finance, tech, and sociology. These platforms allow users to bet on the outcomes of future events, whether political, economic, or cultural, thus transforming hypotheses into tradable assets. The growing interest in these markets stems from their ability to aggregate significant amounts of information and opinions, offering estimates often more accurate than traditional polls or analyses.
The development of blockchain has favored this evolution. The transparency, traceability, and censorship resistance that the technology offers guarantee a reinforced security framework for prediction markets. Cryptocurrencies, for their part, bring fluidity and accessibility, especially in intercontinental exchanges. This dynamic opens up broad potential for the massive adoption of these tools.
- Global accessibility: Markets offered by crypto platforms overcome geographical barriers.
- Transparency: Blockchain records every transaction, limiting fraud and enhancing user trust.
- Asset diversification: Betting on events broadens the investment horizon far beyond traditional financial securities.
- Social interaction: Prediction markets create an engaged and passionate community around future outcomes.
| Advantages of prediction markets | Concrete impact |
|---|---|
| Forecast accuracy | Better anticipation of economic and political trends |
| Financial innovation | Introduction of new financial products based on events |
| Reduction of information asymmetry | Enhanced equality between investors and bettors |
| New crypto uses | Strengthening the utility of cryptocurrencies beyond simple exchange |
With Coinbase’s entry into this field, the fusion of prediction markets with the crypto universe takes a major step forward.
Coinbase and Kalshi: strategic partnership for a regulated and innovative platform
Coinbase’s strength now lies in its alliance with Kalshi, a prediction market platform fully regulated by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This partnership gives Coinbase unprecedented legitimacy and a legal gateway into the American market, where Polymarket remains limited due to its offshore status.
This strategic partnership allows Coinbase to integrate the regulatory robustness necessary for serene expansion, while offering a simple and clear framework for users wanting to bet on all kinds of events. Contracts will be denominated in US dollars (USD) or USDC, thereby guaranteeing stable exchanges while benefiting from the speed of blockchain-based transactions.
- CFTC regulation: Ensures compliance and effective oversight of the offered products.
- Denominated in USD and USDC: Ensures smooth navigation between fiat currencies and stablecoins.
- Secure infrastructure: Maximum protection of user data and funds.
- Native integration: A fluid interface combining crypto trading and prediction markets.
Already in November, Coinbase Custody managed Kalshi’s reserves in USDC, demonstrating a strong relationship and shared technical expertise. This symbiosis allows Coinbase to rapidly offer relevant innovation that goes beyond merely extending its trading offer. It is now a complete, regulated platform designed for the future that is coming into view.
| Features of the Coinbase-Kalshi partnership | Benefits for users |
|---|---|
| Regulatory compliance | Peace of mind and secure market access |
| Native stablecoins and dollars | Less volatility and better risk management |
| Shared technical support | Increased reliability and operational resilience |
| Integrated user interface | Seamless and intuitive experience |
Impact on geographic limitation and mass adoption
While Polymarket still encounters US restrictions, Coinbase with Kalshi opens the way for bettors in the United States. This is a major democratization that could transform this space.
Betting on elections, weather, sports results, or economic conditions will become accessible to many, directly via their Coinbase account. The potential user base now numbers in the tens of millions, offering unprecedented liquidity and diversity of opportunities.
Coinbase challenges Polymarket: increased competition in the prediction markets universe
Coinbase’s decision to enter prediction markets changes the game. Polymarket, which dominated the market in 2024 notably thanks to the presidential elections, must now contend with a challenger possessing far superior technical and commercial resources.
Gemini and Crypto.com are also positioning themselves, reflecting a rush into this innovative sector. Gemini aspires to its own regulated platform, while Crypto.com chose an original partnership with Trump Media to attract a targeted audience. But Coinbase is going all out, relying on:
- Its global notoriety, synonymous with trust and credibility.
- A massive user base with over 100 million registered users.
- Complete compliance immediately thanks to an already validated legal infrastructure.
| Comparison among major prediction market players | Polymarket | Coinbase + Kalshi | Gemini | Crypto.com |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation | Offshore status, limited to non-US residents | Complete, validated by the CFTC | CFTC application pending | Local commercial partnerships |
| User base | Several million | Over 100 million | Million(s) | Million(s) |
| Geographic coverage | Mostly outside US | Worldwide, especially US | Mostly US | Mostly US |
| Types of covered events | Elections, societies, economy | Politics, sports, culture, economy, science | Elections, economy | Politics, media |
Coinbase’s ability to integrate its prediction markets into its existing ecosystem represents a major strategic asset that Polymarket struggles to match, especially given increasing regulatory challenges.
A diversified universe of events to bet on with expertise
Coinbase’s recently unveiled project is not limited to certain segments but extends to almost all imaginable events. Whether in the political, sports, economic, scientific, or cultural spheres, each domain becomes a playground for prediction.
The platform regularly enriches its event catalog, offering a dynamic and news-sensitive offering. Betting on elections or economic trends can thus coexist with more playful possibilities in entertainment or science fields.
- Politics: presidential elections, referendums, important laws.
- Sports: results of major competitions, transfers and athlete performances.
- Economy: market developments, macroeconomic indicators, unemployment figures.
- Science: technological advances, major discoveries, space missions.
- Culture: album releases, cinematic successes, media events.
| Types of events on the Coinbase platform | Specific examples | Audience potential |
|---|---|---|
| Politics | US 2026 presidential, local elections | Very high |
| Sports | 2026 World Cup, NBA championships | High |
| Economy | US quarterly unemployment, global inflation | High |
| Science | James Webb II launch, AI advances | Medium |
| Culture | 2025 Oscars, albums by major artists | Medium |
By integrating these multiple themes into a single interface, Coinbase aims to appeal to both seasoned traders and newcomers seeking a new market experience.
Coinbase user interface: simplicity and education to attract new entrants
Leaked initial images highlight that Coinbase seeks to make the prediction market accessible to a wide audience, whether crypto experts or beginners in event betting. The interface is designed to offer intuitive navigation and a reassuring atmosphere, essential elements to attract novices and retain seasoned Polymarket users.
- Clean design: Each section is clearly identified to facilitate orientation.
- Comprehensive educational section: Tutorials, guides, and FAQs to support users.
- Centralized management: A single Coinbase account suffices to access all features.
- Analytical tools: Real-time charts, market history, trading advice.
This educational approach reflects Coinbase’s goal to make prediction markets not only fun but also serious and sustainable in the long term. It contrasts with some more complex or opaque offers that hinder beginners’ access to these new assets.
| UX/UI features | User benefits |
|---|---|
| Simplified navigation | Reduced learning curve |
| Integrated FAQs and tutorials | Accelerated understanding and reduced errors |
| Unified account | Easy asset and transaction management |
| Real-time analytics | Decision support and refined strategy |
Regulatory and ethical challenges surrounding prediction markets
Despite enthusiasm, the massive arrival of platforms like Coinbase highlights several critical legal and ethical questions. Prediction markets, considered by some as gambling, must navigate a complex regulatory landscape that varies from country to country.
In the United States, regulation via the CFTC guarantees transparency but also imposes strict limits on the types of offered events and investor protection. This notably involves:
- Avoiding market manipulation with clear rules on contributions and position limits.
- Ensuring fairness among participants to prevent fraud.
- Limiting financial risks related to the inherent volatility of these new products.
- Controlling access by minors and uninformed users.
Beyond legal aspects, ethical reflection is essential. Prediction markets raise questions about integrating these tools into the real economy without encouraging excessively speculative or destructive behaviors. Platforms must thus promote responsible use and provide mechanisms to help control betting stakes.
| Regulatory issues | Key measures |
|---|---|
| Investor protection | Stake limits, clear warnings |
| Fraud prevention | Identity checks, transaction monitoring |
| Addiction prevention | Self-limitation tools, education |
| Legal compliance | Partnership with regulatory entities |
It is in this demanding context that Coinbase is precisely betting on its partnership with Kalshi to guarantee an ethical, secure, and sustainable platform capable of meeting user expectations while respecting imposed frameworks.
Outlook: towards a universal financial super-app
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, develops a vision where the platform becomes more than just a cryptocurrency exchange. Prediction markets fit into a broader project of a super-app integrating various financial services: trading, staking, derivatives, and now event prediction across diverse fields.
This convergence of functions delivers a unified user experience where investment and entertainment merge. This strategy could reshape the decentralized finance ecosystem by offering powerful and accessible tools to anticipate, capitalize, and manage assets in a smooth and secure environment.
- Multi-service integration: An all-in-one platform to trade, bet, and secure assets.
- Massive adoption: 100 million users addressed through a single intuitive interface.
- Continuous innovations: Regular addition of new markets and functionalities.
- Seamless experience: Smooth transition between different types of assets and activities.
| Objectives of the Coinbase super-app | Strategic advantages |
|---|---|
| Centralize all financial activities | Better user retention and engagement |
| Facilitate access to new digital assets | Market expansion and diversification |
| Offer compliant and innovative services | Regulated technology leader |
| Improve education and support | Lowering barriers to entry |
This ambitious and pragmatic vision illustrates Coinbase’s determination to push the boundaries of the sector, promising major developments for prediction markets and decentralized finance in the years to come.